China has wrapped up its much anticipated Communist Party congress, a key gathering that has brought in a new leadership team for the ruling party – a team that is already making significant changes in style and substance. The political transition will be completed in March with the unveiling of the new government lineup, and this closely watched change of the guard will determine the direction of policies, possibly for the next decade, in the world’s second largest economy.

China Trade Winds, led by long-time China watcher Eric Meyer, has put together a wide-ranging analysis of these important personnel changes and their policy implications. This study brings together years of experience in assessing China and its key political and economic developments. At this critical juncture, the study takes an in-depth look at the individuals who have already joined this new party elite and those waiting in the wings for a chance to be counted among the top decision makers in the years ahead.

It is a highly readable account, full of anecdotes and up close, « insider » observations on the main characters and their ascent to power. It looks at the alliances and the fault lines within the political establishment, and assesses how these factors will decide which policies might emerge and who might support them — or stand in their way. It looks at the new party leader Xi Jinping and his number two Li Keqiang — the country’s next premier — as well as the less visible but highly influential Wang Huning — the « sherpa » who has already served two Communist Party chiefs by preparing their intellectual ammunition, and now appears set for bigger things. 

The study looks at the prospect of other ambitious policy makeovers, such as a possible shake-up in the transport sector that could weaken the powerful Railways Ministry, and examines the difficulties ahead for the National Development and Reform Commission, now the top state planning body. It also points to the use of urbanization to boost economic growth, a theme that has already been pushed to the front lines of the policy battles only weeks after the party congress.

This is an essential study for anyone who takes China’s political and economic developments seriously. Likewise, it is a must read for anyone doing business in the People’s Republic of China and trying to anticipate shifts in policy direction.

By William KAZER

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About the author :

William Kazer is the China Money News Editor for Dow Jones Newswires. Based in Beijing, he previously worked for Reuters News for 20 years as a correspondent, financial correspondent and editor, in Asia and New York. He has considerable experience in covering China. He also was a correspondent for the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post.